NOT wanting a military confrontation with the United States, China will not dare to remove the dilapidated BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal and will instead wait for it to fall apart, a United States-based maritime security analyst said.
Retired US Col. Raymond Powell said China will not attempt to forcefully tow away the beached ship despite its repeated threats to do so.
China claims Ayungin or Ren’ai Jiao as part of Nansha Qundao or the Spratly Islands, which it controls.
“They could do it if they try. I don’t think that they will try because the… your BRP Sierra Madre is a commissioned ship of the Philippine Navy,” said Powell.
Deliberately grounded in 1999, the Sierra Madre serves as a “constant Philippine government presence” on Ayungin, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said.
The beaching of the derelict ship was in response to China’s “illegal occupation” in 1995 of Panganiban or Mischief Reef, the DFA said.
Powell said the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) states that an armed attack on the Philippines would automatically elicit an armed response from the US.
Article 4 of the MDT states that each signatory recognizes “that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.”
An armed attack “shall be immediately reported to the Security Council of the United Nations. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security,” it further read.
Powell said China does not “want the Philippines to do anything that lengthens the time that the Sierra Madre stays intact on Ayungin Shoal,” he said.
Asked if the ship could become a flashpoint in the region, Powell said, “I don’t think that China is looking for a reason for the United States to get involved in a conflict, in direct conflict in the South China Sea.”
“So, I think it will try to avoid that. China’s perspective is that tomorrow, that ship starts to fall apart, the troops on board call for help, China comes in, rescues the troops, drags the ship off the shoal because it’s a hazard. And then that’s over,” he said.
In the meantime, China’s plan is to “just keep blockading the Shoal until the ship finally falls apart,” Powell said.
The DFA in December 2023 filed a diplomatic protest against the China Coast Guard’s use of water cannon against Philippine vessels on regular resupply missions to Filipino fishermen in Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) and soldiers stationed in BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal in the West Philippine Sea.
China filed counter-protests, insisting that the area where the rusting Sierra Madre lies is part of its territory.
Influence
Powell said that China’s economic influence in the region prevents some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
“China is very well known for using economic inducements on one hand [or] carrots and then threats or sticks on the other hand to sort of encourage nations or governments to go their way,” the founder and director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project that monitors and reports activities in the South China Sea, said during a roundtable with The Manila Times on February 15.
“There was a famous quote by a Singaporean diplomat where he said people expect Asean to be a horse, but Asean is not a horse. It’s a cow,” said Powell. “So you can’t ask a cow to be a horse. Asean does some things well. Coming up with a strong stance on collective security is not one of those things,” he said.
Powell said Laos, a landlocked nation, “is not interested in the South China Sea very much.”
“If China does not want a particular stance to be taken, it’s not hard for China to influence those discussions. So, I think it’s a lot to ask Asean to be able to come in and take a strong stand on South China Sea issues,” he said.
“I think that there are those who are trying very hard. I commend them for trying very hard,” said Powell.